Senegal vs Iraq
Both sides are out. Senegal and Iraq lost their first two games, took zero points between them and meet in Toronto with nothing left to chase but pride and a parting goal. Senegal carry the sharper attack and start as clear favourites, with Ismaila Sarr and Sadio Mané hunting a finish to remember. Our prediction, verified Group I form, best bets and goalscorer tips for the BMO Field send-off.
Updated 25 June 2026 · Ryan Edwards · World Cup 2026 Hub
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Senegal vs Iraq: A Group I Dead Rubber
Group I gave us a clean breakaway at the top and a clear-cut bottom. France and Norway won both their opening games and booked their Round of 32 places. Senegal and Iraq lost both of theirs and head out of the tournament. The two eliminated sides meet at BMO Field in Toronto with no points, no qualification on the line and nothing to play for beyond pride and a closing scoreline.
Senegal opened against France and pushed the eventual group winners hard, falling 3-1 after Kylian Mbappé struck twice late on. They then ran Norway to the wire, Ismaila Sarr scoring twice in a 3-2 defeat that an Erling Haaland brace decided. Two narrow losses to the group’s two qualifiers tell you Senegal belong at this level, and that finishing pointless flatters the gap.
Iraq found the going harder. Norway beat them 4-1 in the opener, then France saw them off 3-0. Aymen Hussein scored Iraq’s only goal of the group, against Norway, before an own goal late in that same game summed up a rough debut campaign. Graham Arnold’s side competed in patches without ever threatening to take a result.
Pride still matters here. Senegal want to leave North America with a win and a performance worth remembering, and Sadio Mané has spoken about signing off on a high. Iraq want a first World Cup point and the dignity of a tighter scoreline. Neither manager will name a weakened side just because the table is settled.
Road to Matchday 3 — Verified Results
| Date | Fixture | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 16 Jun | France 3–1 Senegal | Senegal L |
| 16 Jun | Iraq 1–4 Norway | Iraq L |
| 22 Jun | France 3–0 Iraq | Iraq L |
| 22 Jun | Norway 3–2 Senegal | Senegal L |
Group I Standings
| # | Team | P | W | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | France | 2 | 2 | +5 | 6 |
| 2 | Norway | 2 | 2 | +4 | 6 |
| 3 | Senegal | 2 | 0 | −3 | 0 |
| 4 | Iraq | 2 | 0 | −6 | 0 |
France and Norway are both through and settle first and second between themselves — see our Norway vs France preview for the group’s top-spot decider. Senegal and Iraq cannot move off zero points, so this tie is about pride and goal difference alone.
Why Senegal Are Favourites
Senegal bring the stronger squad by a clear margin. They reached the Round of 16 in 2022, won the Africa Cup of Nations in 2022, and field Premier League and top-European talent across the pitch. Ismaila Sarr arrived in form, scoring twice against Norway, and Nicolas Jackson gives them a live centre-forward. Even with elimination confirmed, Aliou Cissé can call on attackers who would walk into most squads at this tournament.
Iraq sit lower in the pecking order. Their forward line laboured for clear chances against France and Norway, and they scored just once across both games. Graham Arnold organises them well and they defend in numbers, yet they lack a finisher of Sarr’s or Jackson’s quality. Against a Senegal side with a point to prove, Iraq face a long evening if they sit deep.
The history is thin between these two, so recent form drives the read. Senegal lost narrowly to the two best teams in the group; Iraq lost heavily to the same pair. That gap, plus Senegal’s individual quality, is why bookmakers price them as strong favourites here. For the wider tournament picture, see our running World Cup betting tips.
Sarr, Jackson and the Goalscorer Angle
Ismaila Sarr leaves the group as Senegal’s standout attacker. His brace against Norway showed a striker timing his runs well and finishing cleanly, and he should lead the line again here. Against an Iraq defence that conceded seven across two games, Sarr looks the most likely Senegal scorer and a sensible anchor for any goalscorer bet.
Nicolas Jackson gives Cissé a second route to goal. His movement stretches back lines and his finishing has sharpened at club level. If Senegal commit to attacking a dead rubber rather than coasting, Jackson will get chances. Watch the team news, as Cissé may rotate his front line and hand minutes to fringe attackers chasing a World Cup goal of their own.
For Iraq, Aymen Hussein carries the goal threat. He scored their only goal of the group and remains their most natural finisher. A first World Cup point would mean the world to this group, and Hussein is the man most likely to deliver the goal that earns it. Both squads field young attackers worth tracking — see our Best Young Player odds for the wider U21 market, and the Golden Boot odds for the headline race.
Predicted Line-Ups
Cissé should keep a strong spine while handing minutes to fringe attackers. Ismaila Sarr and Jackson lead the line; Mané drifts in to create against a deep Iraq block.
Arnold leans on a compact shape and looks to spring Aymen Hussein on the break. Iraq sit deep, soak pressure and chase the first World Cup point that has eluded them.
Line-ups are projected and will firm up nearer kick-off — confirm the team news before backing any goalscorer market.
Our Prediction
Senegal carry the better attack and the stronger motivation to sign off with a win. Iraq defend deep and frustrate for a spell, but Senegal’s quality tells through Sarr and Jackson. We see a controlled Senegal win with a clean sheet the likeliest route. Senegal to win and over 1.5 goals look the soundest reads.
Senegal vs Iraq Odds
Senegal are heavy favourites and the win market offers little value on its own. The interest sits in the goals, handicap and goalscorer markets, where Senegal’s edge is priced more generously. Prices below are indicative — confirm the live number with your bookmaker before staking.
| Market | Selection | Indicative |
|---|---|---|
| Match result | Senegal win | 2/5 |
| Match result | Draw | 7/2 |
| Match result | Iraq win | 7/1 |
| Handicap | Senegal −1 | 5/6 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 goals | 10/11 |
| Scorer | Ismaila Sarr anytime | 5/4 |
| Scorer | Nicolas Jackson anytime | 11/8 |
Best Bets — Senegal vs Iraq
Senegal’s quality gap over Iraq is the cleanest angle on the card. They ran the group’s two qualifiers close and now face the weakest side in the section. A one-goal start line still leaves room at a fair price.
Two goals against Norway and Senegal’s most reliable finisher in the group. Against an Iraq defence that shipped seven in two games, Sarr should get the service and the chances. Strong value if he starts.
Senegal want a statement win and Iraq chase a first point, so neither has reason to shut up shop. If Senegal score early, the game opens and the goals follow. A reasonable lean for an entertaining dead rubber.
With nothing on the line, Cissé may rest senior names and start fringe attackers. If Sarr or Jackson is held back, their goalscorer prices lose value. Hold scorer bets until the confirmed XI lands.
Bet Builder Tip
| Leg | Selection | Indicative |
|---|---|---|
| Result | Senegal to win | 2/5 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 goals | 10/11 |
| Scorer | Ismaila Sarr to score | 5/4 |
| Cards | Over 3.5 cards | 4/5 |
Four legs built around the obvious read: Senegal’s class, an open dead rubber and a defence under pressure. For more multi ideas, see our bet builder tips and accumulator tips.
Use a welcome free bet on Senegal to win or Sarr anytime — full list on our offers page.
Where to Watch Senegal vs Iraq
Senegal vs Iraq is expected to be shown live in the UK on ITV4, with a free stream on ITVX. Kick-off is 8pm BST (3pm ET) on Friday 26 June 2026 at BMO Field in Toronto, Ontario. UK coverage usually begins 30 to 45 minutes before kick-off. Confirm the channel against the published TV listings on the day, as broadcaster splits can change late.
Head-to-Head & Key Numbers
| Stat | Senegal | Iraq |
|---|---|---|
| Group I record | L2 · 0 pts | L2 · 0 pts |
| Goal difference | −3 | −6 |
| Goals scored | 3 | 1 |
| Top scorer | I. Sarr 2 | A. Hussein 1 |
| Tournament status | Eliminated | Eliminated |
World Cup 2026 — Final Group Games
Every remaining group-stage decider, with our prediction, best bets and goalscorer tips for each. Tap any tie for the full preview.
| Group | Fixture | Preview |
|---|---|---|
| I | Senegal v Iraq | This page |
| H | Uruguay v Spain | Tips → |
| H | Cape Verde v Saudi Arabia | Tips → |
| G | Egypt v Iran | Tips → |
| G | New Zealand v Belgium | Tips → |
| L | Panama v England | Tips → |
| L | Croatia v Ghana | Tips → |
| K | Colombia v Portugal | Tips → |
| K | DR Congo v Uzbekistan | Tips → |
| J | Algeria v Austria | Tips → |
| J | Jordan v Argentina | Tips → |
More World Cup 2026 Guides
Frequently Asked Questions
What time is Senegal vs Iraq?
Senegal vs Iraq kicks off at 8pm BST (3pm ET) on Friday 26 June 2026 at BMO Field in Toronto, Ontario.
What channel is Senegal vs Iraq on in the UK?
It is expected to be shown live and free on ITV4, with a stream on ITVX. Confirm against the published listings on the day.
Are Senegal and Iraq already out?
Yes. Both lost their opening two games and finished on zero points, so neither can reach the Round of 32. This Group I tie is a dead rubber played for pride.
Who is favourite, Senegal or Iraq?
Senegal are clear favourites. They carry the stronger squad and pushed France and Norway close, while Iraq lost both their games heavily and scored only once.
What is our Senegal vs Iraq prediction?
We predict a 2-0 Senegal win, with Ismaila Sarr a strong goalscorer pick. Senegal to win and over 1.5 goals are our headline bets.
