Dutching Calculator

How to Use the Dutching Calculator

1. Enter your total stake.This is the total you want to spend across all your selections. The calculator splits it between them.
2. Enter the odds for each selection.Type the price for each outcome you want to cover, fractional or decimal. You can label each one with the horse, player or result.
3. Add or remove selections.Tap Add selection to cover more outcomes, or the cross to remove one.
4. Read the stakes.The panel shows the stake on each selection, the return if any of them wins, the profit, how much of the market you cover, and what you lose if none of them wins.
5. Watch minimum stakes.If a stake falls below a bookmaker’s minimum bet, round it up. That changes the equal return slightly, so recheck the figures.

What Is Dutching?

Dutching means backing several selections in the same race or event and splitting your stake so that you win the same amount whichever of them wins. Cover three horses in a race and the return is identical whether horse 1, 2 or 3 comes in.

The name is said to come from Dutch Schultz, a Prohibition-era American gangster linked in betting folklore to the technique. Whatever the origin, punters have used it for decades, and it is a standard tool in value betting and matched betting.

Dutching is most common in horse racing, especially big handicaps where several runners look like they have a chance. It works in any sport or market where you want cover on more than one outcome without backing the whole field.

The Dutching Formula

Dutching is based on implied probability. For any selection, the implied chance is 1 ÷ decimal odds. To work out each stake:

• Work out each selection’s implied chance: 1 ÷ decimal odds
• Add them up: total = P1 + P2 + P3 …
• Each selection’s share = its implied chance ÷ the total
• Each selection’s stake = total stake × its share

Example: three horses at 4.00, 5.00 and 8.00 with a £100 total stake.

• Implied chances: 1 ÷ 4.00 = 25.0%, 1 ÷ 5.00 = 20.0%, 1 ÷ 8.00 = 12.5%
• Total: 25.0 + 20.0 + 12.5 = 57.5%
• Stake on 4.00: (25.0 ÷ 57.5) × £100 = £43.48
• Stake on 5.00: (20.0 ÷ 57.5) × £100 = £34.78
• Stake on 8.00: (12.5 ÷ 57.5) × £100 = £21.74

Check: £43.48 × 4.00, £34.78 × 5.00 and £21.74 × 8.00 all return £173.91, a profit of £73.91 whichever of the three wins. If any other horse wins, all three bets lose and you lose the £100. These are the default figures in the calculator above.

When Is Dutching Worth It?

As long as your selections cover less than 100% of the market, the equal return is always bigger than your stake, so you make a profit whenever one of them wins. That part is simple arithmetic. The real question is whether the bet is worth it: in the example above you cover 57.5% of the market, so on the bookmaker’s own numbers you lose the £100 the rest of the time.

A dutch only has value if you think your selections have a better combined chance of winning than the 57.5% the odds imply. Put another way, dutching does not create value. It spreads the value, or the lack of it, that is already in the prices across several selections. It works best when:

• You take the best price on each selection. The best price for each runner may be at a different bookmaker. Better prices lower the combined implied percentage, which raises the return when one of them wins.
• You use exchange prices. Betting exchanges usually carry much smaller margins than bookmakers, so the same selections cost less in implied probability, even after commission.
• You genuinely rate the selections. If you believe two or three runners are underestimated by the market, a dutch lets you back that view across all of them at once.

Dutching vs Arbitrage

Dutching and arbitrage use the same maths but cover different amounts of the market:

• Arbitrage covers every possible outcome, using prices from different bookmakers that add up to less than 100%. Whatever happens, you lock in a profit, as long as every bet is placed at those prices. Use our arbitrage calculator for these.
• Dutching covers only some of the outcomes. If you dutch three of five horses and one of the other two wins, you lose your whole stake.

Arbitrage needs mispriced markets across bookmakers and is hard to find consistently. Dutching works on any group of outcomes in any event, which makes it a more practical tool for race-by-race betting based on form.

Dutching in Horse Racing

Horse racing is the natural home of dutching, because big fields with several real contenders give regular chances to cover more than one runner. Common uses:

• Covering the main contenders: in a competitive handicap, backing the three or four runners the form suggests are the real chances and leaving out the outsiders.
• A trainer’s runners: when a trainer has several runners in the same race, dutching them backs the stable without having to pick which one.
• Late market moves: when two or three runners are strongly backed close to the off, dutching them follows the money without committing to one.

Before you dutch a race, check the overall market with our betting margin calculator to see how much margin the prices carry.

Dutching and Matched Betting

Dutching also shows up in matched betting, for example when a promotion needs bets on several selections. Our matched betting calculator works out the lay stake at the exchange for each selection you back.

Common Dutching Mistakes

• Treating a profit-if-it-wins figure as value. The calculator shows a profit whenever one of your selections wins, but you lose everything if none of them does. Judge the bet by the chance of one of them winning, not by the profit figure alone.
• Using one bookmaker for every selection. The margin pushes the combined percentage up. Take the best price on each selection, even if that means several bookmakers.
• Ignoring minimum stakes. Small stakes may need rounding up, which changes the equal return slightly. With many selections on a small budget, the effect can matter.
• Covering too many selections. Covering eight of ten runners makes each stake tiny and pushes the combined percentage close to 100%, so the profit when you win becomes small. Focus on two to four real contenders.