USA vs Belgium Prediction, Odds & Tips
A 2014 last-16 rematch: co-hosts USA host Belgium’s golden generation in Seattle, with the USMNT sweating on the absence of suspended top scorer Folarin Balogun. Here is our full preview, odds comparison, our prediction, anytime scorer picks and bet builder combinations for Match 94.
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USA vs Belgium Match Overview
Twelve years on from one of the great World Cup nights, they meet again. When the USA and Belgium last crossed paths at a World Cup — the 2014 Round of 16 in Salvador — Belgium won 2–1 after extra time in a classic, Tim Howard making a record 16 saves in defeat. Now the co-hosts get their rematch on home soil at Lumen Field in Seattle, with a quarter-final place at stake and the same two Belgians who broke American hearts in 2014 still in the squad.
The USA topped Group D on six points. Mauricio Pochettino’s side opened with a statement 4–1 win over Paraguay, followed up with a 2–0 victory over Australia at this very Lumen Field venue, then lost 3–2 to Türkiye in a dead rubber with top spot already secured. In the Round of 32 they beat Bosnia & Herzegovina 2–0, but the night came at a cost: Folarin Balogun, the tournament’s leading American scorer with three goals, was sent off on the hour for a stamp, and Malik Tillman’s late free kick sealed it while the hosts played out the closing half-hour with ten men.
That red card is the story of the build-up. Balogun serves an automatic one-match ban and misses the Belgium game, stripping Pochettino of his in-form No. 9. The USA must reshape their attack around Christian Pulisic and Tillman against opponents who know exactly how to punish a weakened forward line.
Belgium won Group G, but only just, edging Egypt on goal difference after a 1–1 draw with the Pharaohs, a goalless stalemate with Iran and a 5–1 demolition of New Zealand. Rudi Garcia’s side then survived a scare of their own in the last 32: 2–0 down to Senegal through Habib Diarra and Ismaïla Sarr, they roared back with late goals from Romelu Lukaku (86′) and Youri Tielemans (89′) to force extra time, before Tielemans buried a penalty deep in the second period of extra time — timed at around 124 minutes, reported as the latest winning goal in World Cup history — to win it 3–2.
Belgium are narrow favourites at around 6/5, with the USA out towards 2/1 and the home crowd their biggest asset. Losing Balogun tilts the tie further Belgium’s way, but a raucous Seattle crowd and Pulisic’s quality keep the USMNT live. The winner of Match 94 reaches the quarter-finals (9–11 July). Level after 90 minutes brings extra time and, if needed, penalties — exactly how these sides settled it in 2014.
Predicted Line-Ups
USA
The big call is forced: Folarin Balogun is suspended after his red card, so Pochettino must find a new focal point. Expect Christian Pulisic to carry the attack, with Malik Tillman — scorer against Bosnia — and Gio Reyna providing support. The USA will lean on their home crowd and quick, direct transitions.
Pulisic the talisman; Tillman and Reyna in support of a reshaped front line without Balogun.
Balogun out (suspended). Confirm the rest of the XI near kick-off.
Belgium
Garcia’s side is packed with experience. Kevin De Bruyne pulls the strings, Romelu Lukaku leads the line and Youri Tielemans — the last-32 hero with two goals — anchors midfield. Leandro Trossard and Jérémy Doku give Belgium pace and end product from wide areas.
De Bruyne the creator; Lukaku and Tielemans the goal threats. No suspensions reported.
Team news to confirm near kick-off; Belgium look to be at full strength.
Our Prediction
The home crowd will make Lumen Field a cauldron, but losing Balogun is a serious blow to a USA attack that leaned on him. Belgium have more quality across the pitch and the experience to handle a hostile night, even if they have looked vulnerable at the back. We are calling Belgium to edge it 2–1, with both teams likely to score. Do not rule out the USA forcing extra time as they did to Belgium’s cost in reverse in 2014 — but the Red Devils should have enough.
USA vs Belgium Odds Comparison
Indicative 1X2 prices for the 90-minute result are below. Belgium are marginal favourites, with the USA’s home advantage keeping the tie close despite Balogun’s suspension. Odds move quickly before a knockout game — always confirm the live price before you stake.
| Bookmaker | USA | Draw | Belgium | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betway | 2/1 | 9/4 | 6/5 | Bet Now → |
| QuinnBet | 15/8 | 23/10 | 5/4 | Bet Now → |
| Parimatch | 2/1 | 12/5 | 11/10 | Bet Now → |
Odds shown are indicative and were correct at the time of writing. They will drift as team news lands and money comes in. Click through and check the live price in the bookmaker’s app before placing any bet. These are 90-minute (full-time result) prices and do not include extra time or penalties.
Best Bets — USA vs Belgium
Belgium to qualify
The 2014 tie went to extra time, and Belgium have already needed it once this tournament. “Belgium to qualify / to win the tie” prices in extra time and penalties — the safer way to back the favourites given the USA’s home crowd.
Both teams to score
Belgium shipped two to Senegal and can be got at, while the USA will attack in front of their own fans. Both teams to score fits an open, end-to-end knockout and our 2–1 call.
Lukaku anytime scorer
Two goals already this tournament and a scorer against the USA back in 2014, Lukaku remains Belgium’s main aerial threat. A dependable pick in a game Belgium are fancied to win.
USA Double Chance (value)
For the contrarian: a full house at Lumen Field, a USMNT that has already won there, and a Belgium defence that has wobbled. USA Double Chance (to win or draw in 90) is the value angle even with Balogun missing.
Standard match-result and over/under markets settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage time only. Extra time and penalties do not count unless the market specifically says “to qualify” or “to lift the trophy”. These sides needed extra time to settle it in 2014, so the distinction matters.
Anytime Goalscorer Tips
With Balogun suspended, the USA’s scoring burden shifts. Verified scorers from the tournament so far:
- Romelu Lukaku (Belgium) — two goals this tournament, including the late strike against Senegal. Belgium’s focal point and a scorer against the USA in 2014.
- Youri Tielemans (Belgium) — two goals, both in the last-32 comeback, including the extra-time winner. On penalties and set pieces, he is a threat.
- Leandro Trossard (Belgium) — two goals in the group stage; a sharp finisher off either flank.
- Christian Pulisic (USA) — the USMNT’s talisman and, with Balogun out, their most likely source of a goal.
- Malik Tillman (USA) — scored the second against Bosnia in the last 32 and steps up in Balogun’s absence.
Anytime goalscorer settles on 90 minutes only. Do not back Folarin Balogun — he is suspended for this game. Lukaku is the pick on the Belgium side; Pulisic leads the USA market. Always confirm the starting XI before staking.
Bet Builder Tips — USA vs Belgium
Three same-game builders for the tie. These are ideas, not certainties — each leg adds risk, and the more legs you stack the longer the odds and the easier it is to come unstuck.
- The favourite with goals: Belgium to win + both teams to score + Lukaku anytime scorer. A clean fit for our 2–1 call.
- Belgium quality: Belgium to qualify + over 2.5 goals + De Bruyne 1+ assists. Backs the Red Devils’ class to tell in an open game.
- Home-crowd angle: USA Double Chance + both teams to score + Pulisic 1+ shots on target. For anyone fancying the co-hosts to make it a long night.
Bet builder prices vary a lot between bookmakers — shop around, and remember some welcome offers above (Betnero, 7Bet, Matchbook) are built specifically for accumulators and bet builders.
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Belgium at the 2026 World Cup — One Last Run
Belgium’s so-called golden generation is older now, but it is still here. Rudi Garcia’s side came through Group G unbeaten — a 1–1 draw with Egypt, a goalless stalemate with Iran and a 5–1 rout of New Zealand — to top the group on goal difference. It was not always convincing, but Belgium found another gear when it mattered in the last 32.
Trailing Senegal 2–0 and staring at elimination, they produced one of the comebacks of the tournament: Romelu Lukaku pulled one back in the 86th minute, Youri Tielemans levelled in the 89th, and after a goalless first period of extra time Tielemans held his nerve to convert a penalty deep into the second — a goal timed at roughly 124 minutes, reported as the latest match-winner in World Cup history. Kevin De Bruyne remains the creative heartbeat, Lukaku the focal point, and the spine that reached the 2018 semi-finals still carries genuine quality.
For the USA, there is history to avenge. Belgium knocked them out at this exact stage in 2014, De Bruyne and Lukaku scoring in extra time, and both men are still central to this side. Belgium have vulnerabilities — the Senegal game showed a defence that can be opened up — but in a knockout, their experience and match-winners make them favourites, even away from home in a hostile Seattle.
Where to Watch USA vs Belgium
USA vs Belgium kicks off at 1:00am BST in the early hours of Tuesday 7 July 2026 (5:00pm PT / 8:00pm ET on Monday 6 July) at Lumen Field in Seattle. Every World Cup 2026 match is shown live in the UK on either BBC or ITV, with free streaming on BBC iPlayer and ITVX. Check the latest TV listings closer to kick-off to confirm which channel carries this tie.
If the score is level after 90 minutes, the game goes to 30 minutes of extra time and, if still level, a penalty shootout — as happened when these sides met in 2014, so set aside extra time. Coverage usually begins around half an hour before the whistle with build-up and team news.
Stats & Form
| Metric | USA | Belgium |
|---|---|---|
| Group finish | Group D — 1st (6 pts) | Group G — 1st (5 pts) |
| Group results | W 4–1 Paraguay · W 2–0 Australia · L 2–3 Türkiye | D 1–1 Egypt · D 0–0 Iran · W 5–1 New Zealand |
| Round of 32 | W 2–0 Bosnia & Herzegovina | W 3–2 Senegal (after extra time) |
| Top scorer (tournament) | Folarin Balogun (3) — suspended | Lukaku / Trossard / Tielemans (2) |
| Manager | Mauricio Pochettino | Rudi Garcia |
| Key absentee | Folarin Balogun (red-card ban) | None confirmed |
| Last World Cup meeting | Belgium 2–1 USA (a.e.t.) — 2014 Round of 16 | |
Results, scorers, the Balogun suspension and head-to-head verified against ESPN, NBC Sports, Sky Sports, FIFA.com and the FIFA World Cup 2026 Group D, Group G and knockout-stage pages on Wikipedia, correct to 2 July 2026.
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USA vs Belgium FAQ
What time does USA vs Belgium kick off and where is it played?
Kick-off is 1:00am BST in the early hours of Tuesday 7 July 2026 (5:00pm PT / 8:00pm ET on Monday 6 July) at Lumen Field in Seattle. It is Match 94 of the World Cup, a Round of 16 knockout tie.
Is Folarin Balogun suspended for USA vs Belgium?
Yes. Balogun was sent off for a stamp in the Round of 32 win over Bosnia & Herzegovina and serves an automatic one-match ban, so he misses the Belgium game. He was the USA’s leading scorer at the tournament with three goals, making his absence a major blow for Mauricio Pochettino.
Who is favourite to win USA vs Belgium?
Belgium are narrow favourites, priced around 6/5 for a 90-minute win at the time of writing, with the USA about 2/1 and the draw around 9/4. The USA’s home crowd keeps the tie close despite Balogun’s suspension. Odds are indicative — confirm the live price before betting.
Have USA and Belgium met at a World Cup before?
Yes — famously. Belgium beat the USA 2–1 after extra time in the 2014 Round of 16, Kevin De Bruyne and Romelu Lukaku scoring in extra time; both are still in Belgium’s 2026 squad. Tim Howard’s 16 saves in that game remain the most by a goalkeeper in a single World Cup match.
How did USA and Belgium reach the Round of 16?
The USA won Group D on six points (4–1 v Paraguay, 2–0 v Australia, 2–3 v Türkiye) then beat Bosnia & Herzegovina 2–0. Belgium won Group G (1–1 v Egypt, 0–0 v Iran, 5–1 v New Zealand) and came from 2–0 down to beat Senegal 3–2 after extra time in the last 32.
What is our prediction for USA vs Belgium?
We are calling Belgium to win 2–1, with both teams scoring. Belgium have more quality across the pitch and the USA are without suspended top scorer Balogun, though the Seattle crowd could push the co-hosts to extra time. As always, this is one analyst’s view — bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
