Early prices are exactly what they sound like – the odds available when you first spot them, usually well before an event kicks off. The key thing is, once you take an early price, you’re locked into those odds regardless of what happens to the market later on.
Let’s say you fancy a horse at Cheltenham and it’s currently priced at 8/1 at ten in the morning. If you take that early price, you’ll get paid out at 8/1 whether the horse drifts out to 12/1 or gets hammered down to 4/1 by race time. That’s your rate, set in stone.
The alternative is waiting for the starting price, or SP as it’s commonly called. This gets calculated from the average of what the on-course bookies are offering just before the race begins. Doesn’t matter if you’ve bet online, in the shop, or trackside – if you’ve taken SP, that’s the price everyone gets paid at.
Choosing between early prices and SP is a bit of a game within the game. You’re essentially trying to predict whether your selection will get more popular or less popular as race time approaches. Back a horse at 6/1 early doors and watch it shorten to 3/1 at the off? You’ve done well. Take those same 6/1 odds and see it drift to 10/1? Not so clever.
Most punters who know their stuff tend to take early prices because they’ve done their homework whilst the general public hasn’t caught on yet. If you’ve spotted something about a particular trainer’s record at a certain course, or noticed a jockey booking that suggests connections fancy their chances, you want to get on before everyone else cottons on.
There’s definitely skill involved in reading market movements. Some horses get backed purely because casual punters recognise the name, whilst others drift because they look unfancied in the paddock. Then you’ve got the smart money – big bets from people in the know that can send prices tumbling in minutes.
Here’s where it gets interesting though – you can hedge your bets if you’re not sure which way the market will move. Stick half your intended stake on at the early price, then leave the other half to ride at SP. That way you’re covered either way, though obviously you won’t maximise your winnings if you’ve called it perfectly.
The early price versus SP decision becomes even trickier with ante-post betting. You might back a horse for the Grand National in January at 25/1, only to see it become favourite by April. Great if it wins, but you’re kicking yourself if it gets injured and you can’t get your money back like you would with a standard bet.
Football markets work slightly differently because there’s no formal SP, but the principle remains. Take Chelsea at 2/1 to beat Arsenal on Tuesday, and those odds might look generous or stingy by Saturday depending on team news, form, and where the money’s gone.
One thing worth remembering is that bookmakers aren’t daft. Early prices often reflect pretty accurately what the SP will be anyway, especially on bigger races where they’ve got loads of data. You’re not always getting a massive edge just by betting early.
The smart approach probably depends on how confident you are in your own judgment versus the market’s wisdom. If you genuinely think you’ve spotted something others have missed, taking early prices makes sense. If you’re just having a punt based on limited information, waiting for SP might save you from backing a no-hoper that everyone else can see coming a mile off.
Truth is, most recreational punters probably overthink the early price versus SP decision. The difference often isn’t massive, and you’re more likely to improve your results by picking better selections than by timing your bets perfectly. But for those who take their betting seriously, getting the best available odds is part of the skill set that separates winners from losers over time.
