Arbitrage betting – or “arbing” as it is more commonly known – is the holy grail of most punters. The idea of guaranteed profit regardless of outcome sounds too good to be true, and in some ways it is, but the concept itself is perfectly legal.
Arbing is the practice of exploiting price discrepancies between bookmakers on the same event.
Imagine Bookmaker A is offering Liverpool to beat Arsenal at 2.1, and Bookmaker B is offering Arsenal to win the same game at 2.2. By placing bets on both outcomes with accurately calculated stakes, you are guaranteed a profit whichever team wins. It’s risk-free money in effect, and that’s the reason why bookmakers despise it so much.
The opportunities arise because different bookmakers price an event differently, or sometimes one bookie lags behind news that has just emerged. Maybe Harry Kane gets injured at the last minute and most bookies change their odds immediately, but one of them is on a coffee break and hasn’t yet.
That’s your window.
The maths gets a bit shaky, but the principle is straightforward enough. You’re wagering on all possible outcomes at odds that collectively leave you in profit. Others call them “surebets” or “miraclebets,” which indicates how punters view these instances.
Arbing has become so much easier with exchange betting since you can back on exchanges like Betfair and lay with regular bookies. Suppose you have a horse priced at 10/1 with a bookmaker but you could lay it at 8/1 on an exchange. Then you’re in for a good time. The horse loses and you have both stakes returned, or wins and you still get to keep the profit after paying out the exchange bettors.
Course, it’s not actually the get-rich-quick scheme it appears to be.
Arbing opportunities are scarce as hen’s teeth and usually yield minimal margins – we’re talking 2-5% profit if you’re lucky. And they don’t last longer than gratis drinks at a wedding before other crafty punters hear about them. You need multiple bookmaker accounts, significant bankrolls for it to be worth doing, and the saintly patience.
And then there’s the worst of all evils – bookies aren’t stupid. They have top-class software that detects suspect betting patterns, and if you’re constantly making use of their arbing opportunities, they’ll restrict your accounts quicker than you can yell “guaranteed profit.”
Many experienced arbers are persona non grata with all but the tiniest of large bookies, which rather puts the kibosh on the idea.
Horse racing gives the best arbing opportunities as prices change continuously and wildly. Football could be used as well, especially on the thousands of lower league games where bookmakers might not be watching price changes as closely.
But then there’s the catch – the less mainstream the market, the more you appear to stick out like a sore thumb when you bet there.
Shrewd arbers attempt to disguise themselves by laying many “mug bets” – accumulators, favourite sides, easy punts made by ordinary customers. The strategy is to appear a standard punter who sometimes chases value, as opposed to someone methodically taking advantage of pricing mistakes.
Some venture into actual betting outlets to lay their arb bets, evading the electronic record left by online gambling.
The reality is that successful long-term arbing is as much a business as it is leisure gambling. You need multiple accounts at different bookmakers, spreadsheets to keep tabs on opportunities, quick response times to seize price discrepancies, and the self-control to work small, consistent gains.
It also doesn’t hurt to remember that betting exchanges charge commission on wins, typically 5%, that nibbles away at your already thin margins.
For the typical weekend recreational punter, arbing simply is not worthwhile. The hassle compared to reward does not compute, and with the added danger of account closure, you’re essentially being paid minimum wage with the ever-present fear of looking over your shoulder.
That being said, if you’re mathematically inclined, enjoy a challenge, and don’t mind the admin that comes with it, arbing can provide solid returns with minimal risk. Just don’t consider it a career replacement just yet.
