🥊 World Cup 2026 Penalty Shootout Betting Guide
How to bet on World Cup 2026 penalty shootouts. Pickford’s unmatched record, how many shootouts to expect in the expanded 48-team format, nations with the best records, the markets to use and when to back England to win on penalties in-play.
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Penalty Shootout Betting at the 2026 World Cup
The 2026 World Cup introduces a new knockout round — the Round of 32 — adding 16 extra knockout games to the traditional format. With 32 knockout matches before the quarter-finals, and an additional 12 from the quarter-finals through to the final, there are 44 knockout games in total. Historically, roughly 25–30% of knockout football matches go to a penalty shootout. At that rate, you can reasonably expect 8–12 penalty shootouts across the 2026 tournament — more than any previous World Cup.
This creates a substantial betting opportunity — both in the pre-match “game to go to penalties” market, and in-play if a knockout match reaches 80+ minutes level. For England specifically, the calculus has changed entirely since 2018. Jordan Pickford has fundamentally shifted the statistical case for backing England to win on penalties, and the market still prices shootouts as close to a coinflip when they aren’t for England specifically.
Penalty Shootout Markets Available
Most bookmakers listed above offer the following penalty-related markets on all knockout fixtures. Always check the specific market rules before placing — particularly whether bets settle on 90 minutes, 120 minutes or after the shootout itself.
| Market | When Available | Settlement | Best Use Case |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match to go to Extra Time / Penalties | Pre-match, knockout rounds | Settles if match goes beyond 90 mins stoppage | Best pre-match play when game looks likely to be tight |
| Team to win on penalties | Pre-match or in-play once at 90 mins level | Settles after shootout outcome only | Back England when level at 80+ mins in-play |
| First penalty scorer | Pre-match or once penalty awarded in match | Settles on first spot-kick scorer | Back designated penalty takers at any 5/1+ |
| Penalties to be taken (over/under) | Pre-match at some bookmakers | Over/under number of spot-kicks in the shootout | Over 9.5 carries strong historical value |
| Next penalty to be scored / missed | In-play once shootout begins | Settles on the next kick only | Highly variable — specialist in-play market |
Jordan Pickford — Why England’s Penalty Record Has Changed
England’s penalty record in major tournaments before Pickford was catastrophic — losing to Germany in 1996, Argentina in 1998, Portugal in 2004 and 2006, and Italy in 2012. The country had essentially become a byword for shootout failure. Pickford has fundamentally changed that calculation. Here are his defining saves in the biggest shootout moments:
Pickford saved Bacca’s penalty as England won 4–3 on spot-kicks, ending a 28-year wait to win a World Cup shootout. He had studied Colombia’s penalty takers beforehand — the first sign of a systematic approach to shootout preparation at England level.
This game was decided in 90 minutes, but Pickford’s confidence and command throughout Germany’s attacking phases at Wembley underscored how far England had come defensively under his leadership. England went on to reach the final.
In the final at Wembley, Pickford saved Belotti’s penalty in the shootout. England ultimately lost 3–2 on spot-kicks when three outfield players missed — but Pickford performed. His save percentage across major tournament shootouts is significantly above average.
The betting angle: The market prices England to win on penalties at close to Evens — a roughly 50% implied probability. England’s actual shootout win rate under Pickford since 2018 is nearer 60%, and the structural advantage of having a goalkeeper who specifically prepares for individual penalty takers is not fully reflected in the odds. When England reach 80+ minutes level in a knockout game, backing “England to win on penalties” in-play is a repeatable edge.
Claim a free bet above and use it in-play once England reach 80+ minutes level in a knockout.
Nations with the Best Penalty Shootout Records
Penalty records vary significantly between nations. The table below shows current shootout win rates at major international tournaments (World Cup and continental championships, post-1990):
| Nation | Shootout Win Rate | Recent Record | Key Penalty Taker | Key Goalkeeper |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina | 73% | Won 2022 final vs France (4-2) | Messi, Gonzalez | Martínez — 3 saves in 2022 |
| Germany | 71% | Strong historical record | Kimmich, Gundogan | Neuer — dominant presence |
| Spain | 64% | Won Euro 2024 vs France on pens | No single dominant taker | Simon — improving record |
| England* | 60% | Won 2018 WC, 2021 Euros (semi); lost 2021 final | Kane (primary taker) | Pickford — 3 major saves |
| Portugal | 58% | Lost 2022 WC vs Morocco | Ronaldo (takes under pressure) | Costa — inconsistent |
| France | 50% | Lost 2022 WC final vs Argentina | Mbappé | Maignan — limited shootout data |
| Brazil | 47% | Lost 2022 WC vs Croatia | Multiple takers | Alisson — one of world’s best |
| Netherlands | 38% | Poor historical record — avoid | Van Dijk (not a natural) | Flekken — limited data |
*England’s 60% figure is for the Pickford era (2018 onwards) only. Historical record pre-2018 was considerably worse and should be treated as a different team for betting purposes.
How to Bet on a Penalty Shootout — Step by Step
Here’s the practical guide to placing penalty shootout bets at the 2026 World Cup, across both the pre-match and in-play approaches:
Available before kick-off on all knockout games. Typically priced around 3/1 to 4/1. Best used when two evenly-matched teams meet in a knockout round where neither has obvious superiority — quarter-final and semi-final stages are prime. Avoid in games where one team is a heavy favourite (round of 32 mismatches).
Once the match is level at 80+ minutes in a knockout game, the “team to win on penalties” market opens or becomes correctly priced. For England, Pickford’s record makes this a genuine edge. For Argentina, Martínez’s 2022 World Cup performance (3 saves in the final shootout alone) means backing Argentina on penalties at close to Evens is consistently undervalued.
Once a shootout begins, most bookmakers open a market on whether the next penalty will be scored or missed. Historically, roughly 75% of all World Cup penalties are scored. The “next penalty scored” market is often priced around 1/3 — poor value. The “next penalty missed” market at approximately 2/1 carries better expected value if you have information about the kicker (a known poor penalty taker, a player under psychological pressure, or a player substituted on specifically to take a penalty having had little match involvement).
Shootout markets are excellent vehicles for free bets because they typically offer close to Evens odds (high relative to the stake value of a free bet, which returns winnings only). A £10 free bet on England to win on penalties at Evens returns £10 profit — a full return on nominal stake value. Use our free bet calculator to see returns.
England Penalty Taker Order — 2026
Under Thomas Tuchel, England’s penalty-taking order is not publicly confirmed in advance — but based on training camp information and established hierarchy, the likely sequence is:
| Order | Player | Club Penalty Record | International Record | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | Harry Kane | Excellent (Bayern) — near 90% | Near-perfect record | England’s designated no.1 taker |
| 2nd | Jude Bellingham | Good (Real Madrid) | Limited data but composed | Trusted in pressure moments by Tuchel |
| 3rd | Bukayo Saka | Strong (Arsenal) | Missed Euro 2020 final — redemption arc | Has publicly committed to taking penalties again |
| 4th | Phil Foden | Moderate (Man City) | Not a regular taker | 4th choice — reliable under Guardiola system |
| 5th | Trent Alexander-Arnold | Strong (Real Madrid) | Reliable from spot | Versatile — could move up the order |
Note: Saka’s Euro 2020 final miss — one of three England misses that cost them the tournament — is the most-discussed subplot. His anytime goalscorer record since shows no lasting confidence issue. Tuchel has publicly backed him to take penalties.
When Is England Likely to Face a Penalty Shootout?
England’s bracket from Group L:
| Stage | Likely Opposition | Shootout Probability | Bet if Level at 80 mins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Round of 32 (if 2nd in group) | Group K winner or best 3rd | Low (likely favourable draw) | England to win on pens — around Evens |
| Round of 16 | Likely Group G/H winner | Moderate — Belgium or Morocco possible | England on pens at Evens or better |
| Quarter-Final | Potential Brazil or Argentina | High — expect very tight | Argentina/Brazil have better records than England here |
| Semi-Final | Spain or France possible | High — tournament-defining | Check individual goalkeeper records before backing |
| Final | TBC — 40% of finals go to shootout | Moderate | See our Final betting guide |
Penalty Shootout Betting — Key Rules to Know
A standard 90-minute match result bet settles on the score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. A 0-0 or 1-1 draw in 90 minutes means your match result bet loses — even if your team wins the shootout.
To bet on a team to progress regardless of whether the game goes to extra time or penalties, use the “to qualify” or “to advance” market — this includes all outcomes through to the end of extra time and penalties.
Most first goalscorer markets exclude penalty shootout goals. A goal from the spot during normal time counts, but shootout penalties do not. Always check whether the specific market includes “penalty shootout goals” before placing.
Matchbook (exchange) typically offers significantly better prices on penalty markets than fixed-odds bookmakers. The “team to win on penalties” market at Matchbook is often 2–4% better priced than at a traditional sportsbook. For in-play shootout betting specifically, Matchbook is the recommended platform.
Use welcome offers above to bet on England to win on penalties in-play.
More World Cup 2026 Guides
Frequently Asked Questions
How many penalty shootouts will there be at the 2026 World Cup?
With 44 knockout games in the expanded 48-team format (including the new Round of 32), and a historical shootout rate of roughly 25–30%, you can reasonably expect 8–12 penalty shootouts across the tournament. This is more than any previous World Cup.
Is England a good bet to win on penalties?
Yes — in the Pickford era (2018 onwards), England have won shootouts they previously would have lost. Pickford has 3 major saves across the 2018 World Cup and Euro 2020/2021. England’s shootout win rate since 2018 is approximately 60%, while the market prices them as a 50/50. Back England to win on penalties in-play when they reach 80+ minutes level in a knockout game.
Can I bet on a penalty shootout before the game?
Yes. Most bookmakers offer a pre-match ‘match to go to extra time or penalties’ market on all knockout fixtures. These are typically priced around 3/1 to 4/1. You can also back a specific team to win on penalties pre-match at longer odds, or use the ‘to qualify’ / ‘to advance’ market if you want to back progression including through extra time and penalties.
What happens to my match result bet if it goes to a shootout?
Standard 90-minute match result bets lose on a draw, regardless of what happens in extra time or the penalty shootout. To bet on a team to progress including via a shootout, use the ‘to qualify’ or ‘to advance’ market specifically.
Who takes penalties for England at the 2026 World Cup?
Harry Kane is England’s designated first penalty taker under Tuchel with a near-perfect record. Jude Bellingham is second choice, Bukayo Saka third (he publicly committed to taking penalties again after his Euro 2020 final miss). Phil Foden and Trent Alexander-Arnold are also trusted options.
What is the best in-play penalty shootout bet?
Back England (or Argentina) to win on penalties in-play once the match is level at 80+ minutes in a knockout game. The odds will typically be close to Evens — but both nations have structural goalkeeper advantages that make the actual probability higher than 50%. Use Matchbook for best exchange pricing.
Does the free bet work on penalty shootout markets?
Yes. Free bets can be placed on ‘team to win on penalties’ or ‘match to go to penalties’ markets. Since free bets return winnings only, Evens or better odds maximise their value. A £10 free bet on England at Evens to win on penalties returns £10 profit with no cash at risk. See our free bet calculator.